With a month to go before the November 3 midterm elections, President Donald Trump is spending his campaign days in states Republicans have long taken for granted — a strategy that has drawn attention precisely because it avoids the competitive races Democrats believe they can win.
The president’s first major midterm blitz took him through Texas and Oklahoma on October 1, Alabama on October 2, Ohio on October 3, and Nebraska on October 5. In each stop he has told voters the same thing: “We have to make sure people get out and vote even in Oklahoma,” where he won 66 percent of the vote in 2024.
Political analysts call the red-state tour a “double-edged sword.” Trump’s approval rating has sunk to 32 percent in a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, driven by anger over rising costs and the war with Iran. Strategists say sending an unpopular president into battleground states could energize Democrats, so the campaign is betting on turnout among loyal supporters instead.
Historic headwinds
The president’s party almost always loses seats in midterms, and control of Congress is knife-edge thin: Republicans hold the Senate 53–47 and the House 218–214. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters, “We’re on the edge of taking back the Senate.”
Trump has promised to campaign in 35 competitive congressional races in the final month, and the Republican money advantage is real — $238.6 million on hand against Democrats’ $130.4 million as of late August. Trump has pledged $400 million through his political action committee, and September ad spending already ran $200 million ahead of Democrats.
Races once thought safe are tightening
The tour itself is a signal of how much ground the party is defending. In Texas, where Democrats have not won statewide since 1994, Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton is running within the margin of error against Democrat James Talarico. In Ohio, appointed Senator Jon Husted and former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown are neck and neck. In Nebraska, Senator Pete Ricketts faces a surprisingly competitive challenge from independent Dan Osborn — a race on which $24 million is expected to be spent, making it one of the ten priciest in the country.
“It’s pretty telling that someone thought Trump needed to rally his own base in states such as Nebraska and Oklahoma,” said Renee Cross of the University of Houston. Senate campaign chief Steve Daines admitted it was “a tough environment” but insisted “what’s key is bringing home the Republicans.”
Source: USA Today